Equally-weighted consensus earnings estimates derived from sell side forecasts are still widely used in financial applications. ExtractAlpha’s TrueBeats EPS and revenue surprise predictions outperform consensus models by incorporating the track record and timeliness of the contributing analysts, along with other significant sources of information about a company’s likelihood to beat or miss expectations, such as metrics of earnings management and time-series trends. Our forecasts are consistently more accurate than the consensus, predicting surprises up to 80% of the time.
ExtractAlpha has partnered with Exabel to create the Intelligence Engine, which is a web app designed for discretionary fund managers and analysts to seamlessly integrate TrueBeats predictions into their workflows.
Users can track our surprise predictions versus the consensus as earnings dates approach, track how accurate TrueBeats have been on each name, dive deeper into time series trends of earnings, and even design and monitor backtesting strategies using TrueBeats and other factors over a custom universe.